Arizona Election Updates
Posted by Joe Adamack on November 6, 2024

While many of the headlines focus on the presidential election and balance of power in Congress, your GoWest team has been diving through the state-specific voting outcomes and analyzing current trends. Below are some of the initial insights and updates, recognizing that especially at the state legislative level it may be too early to tell the outcome.
Congress
- Democratic Congressman Ruben Gallego has been called as the winner of the US Senate race, beating Republican Kari Lake by just over 60,000 votes.
- Rep. Juan Ciscomani, R-Tucson, pulled closer overnight in his re-election bid but remains behind Democrat Kirsten Engel in the competitive seat, which may ultimately be a pickup for Democrats.
- Former Phoenix City Councilmember Yassamin Ansari will cruise to a win in the third congressional district after advancing through the Democratic primary by a 42-vote margin.
State Legislature
Current margins for the balance of power in the Arizona Legislature could not get any closer unless there was split control, with Republicans currently holding a one-vote majority in both chambers.
Legislative Democrats eyed picking up a seat in either chamber to tie, or two seats to take full control, but it’s still too close to call.
- Of note: Democrats have not controlled the state House since 1964 with the Senate last being tied in 2000.
Below are a few key races that are too close to call or of interest recognizing that the final results in tight races may not be known until next week, especially with over 700,000 votes left to be counted in Maricopa County alone.
State Senate
Current outcome in the balance of power is too close to call, but could see either party take a majority, or if current positions hold see a 15-15 tie.
The three races that may determine the state Senate balance of power:
- Current Republican Sen. Shawna Bolick holds a narrow lead over House Democrat Judy Schwiebert
- Incumbent Democrat Sen. Christine Marsh and Republican Carine Werner are locked in a virtual tie with Marsh leading by 38 votes in the open seat.
- Former Republican Sen. Vince Leach’s comeback attempt sees him trailing Democrat John McClean by a few thousand votes.
House of Representatives
Like the Senate it’s too early to make a definitive call but we may see Republicans even gain a seat based on current returns.
- Democrat Kevin Volk looks likely to unseat Republican Rep. Cory McGarr.
- Former Rep. Jeff Weninger and current Rep. Willoughby (Republicans) both lead Democratic challengers.
- Democratic Rep. Keith Seaman is behind in Pinal County.
- Republican Michele Pena is the top vote getter in the Democratic 23rd legislative district.
Initiatives Galore
While state lawmakers are generally responsible for making decisions at the Capitol this year both interest groups and lawmakers collectively decided to let voters do some heavy lifting, with 13 initiatives featured on the general election ballot.
The highest profile initiatives address abortion rights and immigration enforcement with both passing by significant margins, but many other items saw Arizona voters weigh in. Most of the other initiatives were rejected, which we’ll recap in detail in the final outcomes report.
We will have a full recap once some pending races are finalized with additional insights as we are able to review the election data.
Posted in Advocacy on the Move, Arizona Advocacy.