Oregon’s September Economic Forecast
Posted by Pam Leavitt on August 28, 2024

The Oregon Office of Economic Analysis has released the September revenue forecast, indicating that Oregon’s economy continues to stabilize, inflation is cooling, and employment rates are still at an all-time high.
Senate Majority Leader Kathleen Taylor (D – SE Portland, Milwaukie & Oak Grove) released the following statement in response: “Our state’s economy remains stable, but it’s clear that people are still facing high prices, and I’m concerned about slowing job growth. We must remain focused on lowering Oregonians’ bills, especially groceries and rent, and growing good-paying, permanent jobs in our state. We also need to take a look at the underlying factors that create a strong, fair economy, including workforce training and childcare.”
Some of the highlights of the report include:
- Expected General Fund Revenues have increased by $676 million relative to the March forecast.
- Two-thirds of the increase is simply due to tracking in recent months.
- Estimated 2023-25 Kickers — Personal: $987 million, Corporate: $883 million.
- Personal income taxes are reduced due to larger projected kicker being paid out.
- Corporate income taxes are increased due to the stronger profits forecast.
- When combined with 2023-25 changes, net available resources are up.
Our business partners at Oregon Business & Industry provided these highlights:
General Economic Outlook and Oregon Population Update
The economic outlook is stable with employment predictions generally tracking with prior forecasts. Economists noted that inflation has cooled to the point that the Federal Reserve could soon begin making long-awaited cuts to interest rates. The economists also noted that would help offset the newly developing soft labor market with job openings, new hires, and worker quit rates all cooling.
Oregon’s population growth has stalled over the last few years, and projected growth is still predicted to be only 0.6% over the next 10 years. Deaths currently exceed live births in Oregon, and the only source of population growth is in-migration. Another note the economists pressed was the continued reduction of school-aged children and the continued growth of older Oregonians.
Revenue Forecast
The September report increased expected tax revenues for the state by $676 million. Economists suggested that the increase could be attributed to past forecasts that underpredicted state revenues and higher than expected personal income tax returns. This is again a significant increase.
Reserves
The state has two reserve accounts, the Oregon Rainy Day Fund (RDF) and the Education Stability Fund (ESF). The September forecast indicates those funds combine to provide the state with $2.6 billion. There is additionally a predicted ending fund balance of $1.8 billion, which provides for an effective reserve of $4.4 billion.
Kicker
The state economists are now estimating both a personal kicker and corporate kicker will be paid for the 2023-25 biennium. The personal kicker is predicted to be much more modest than past kickers as it is predicted to return $987 million to Oregon taxpayers while $883 million will be transferred to the State School Fund.
You can find the full presentation here:
https://olis.oregonlegislature.gov/liz/2023I1/Downloads/CommitteeMeetingDocument/285170
Posted in Advocacy on the Move, Oregon Advocacy.