What to Watch for on Election Night — Washington State Edition

Posted by Joe Adamack on November 4, 2024

As you might have heard by now, Tuesday is election night in the United States and while most of the headlines will focus on the national outcomes there are many implications specific to Washington state. Below are some of the key items to watch for in initial ballot returns and some notable items to remember as you navigate the news.

Key storylines and races

Washington’s congressional seats have been fairly stable for years, with this year shaping up to have the most shifts and intrigue in some time.

• Likely to be the closest of any race will be WA Congressional District 3 in Southwest Washington where first-term incumbent Rep. Marie Gluesenkamp-Perez faces her opponent from 2022 in a re-match that will likely be too close to call on election night.
  • Of note: when watching initial ballot returns on election night know that county election offices don’t report to the state at the exact same time so an initial glance at early results may only include on part of the district. Keep an eye out for that and also recall that leads can and do shift as votes come in since only about half of the ballots cast are generally counted and available on election night returns. 
• Intrigue also abounds in WA CD 4 in Tri-Cities/Yakima-areas where Rep. Dan Newhouse faces a Republican challenger. While Newhouse came in second in the open primary it seems likely Newhouse will win but ballot returns on Tuesday night should quickly make if this will be a runaway or require watching returns for days to come.
• Regardless of outcome we will have two new congressional members in districts 5 (Spokane) and 6 (Bremerton/Kitsap/Olympic Peninsulas) with experience in the state Senate as Spokane County Treasurer and likely winner previously served in the state Senate and both candidates in the 6th CD are current state senators.

Statewide races to watch

• The closest potential statewide office races will likely be for Commissioner of Public Lands, where former Congresswoman Jaime Herrera-Beutler faces King County Councilmember Dave Upthegrove, and possibly Superintendent of Public Instruction. Otherwise, other races including for governor, attorney general, insurance commissioner and more are not expected to be close.

State Legislature

• There’s no question that legislative Democrats will retain majorities in the state Senate and House, but the more likely question is by how much will legislative Democrats increase their current majorities by, which could be anywhere from 1 to 4 seats in both chambers.
  • Of note: certain bills in Olympia require a 60% supermajority vote to pass and if Democrats can obtain that threshold in both chambers, it could affect the negotiating dynamics on items where Republicans can currently leverage votes to pass things like construction and transportation bonds. Constitutional amendments also require a two-thirds majority vote to send them to voters. 

Ballot initiatives

• Four statewide initiatives all put forward by conservative groups aimed at repealing or amending recent priorities
  • Of note: this year will be the first significant test of financial impact statements which are now developed following passage of HB 1876 in 2022. The legislation required the inclusion of a disclosure on any ballot initiatives of the potential impact on state programs that would be affected. This has already shown shifts in polling on certain issues. For example, early polls showed support for repealing the capital gains tax, but sentiment flipped when financial impacts were included. 

Much more to come election night and in the weeks to follow as we analyze the outcomes of the 2024 election in Washington state.

Posted in Advocacy on the Move, Washington Advocacy.