Oregon Revenue Forecast Released

Posted by Pam Leavitt on November 19, 2025

Today in the State Capitol, the December 2025 Economic and Revenue Forecast was released by the Office of Economic Analysis. The latest Oregon revenue forecast features several key changes that have a direct impact on state budgeting and policy decisions.​

Corporate Tax Strength and Budget Deficit Reduction

• Corporate Income Tax receipts were much higher than expected, boosting projected revenues for 2025–27 by $309.5 million.​
• The state’s budget deficit has shrunk sharply, from over $370 million down to $63 million, primarily due to this increase in corporate tax collections.​
• Economists caution that the corporate tax spike is likely temporary and does not reflect broader economic strength, meaning long-term budget challenges persist.​

General Fund and Program Investment

• While total General Fund revenue for the biennium is up compared to previous cycles, inflation and rising fixed costs (“roll-up” costs) have absorbed much of those gains, reducing the amount available for new statewide investments.​
• The Ways and Means co-chair’s budget framework originally anticipated nearly $1 billion for investment in priority areas, but that amount has been halved to less than $487 million because of dropped revenue expectations.​

Non-General Fund and Lottery Revenues

• The most significant non-General Fund change is a decline in Oregon Lottery revenue, particularly from video lottery sales, which are projected to deteriorate further.​

Kicker Refund Outlook

• Despite the corporate tax spike, Oregonians are still expected to receive a substantial “kicker” refund in 2026, though the latest forecast pegs it lower than previously expected at $1.726 billion.

The full presentation can be found HERE.

Posted in Advocacy on the Move, Oregon Advocacy.