MAXX 2024 Mainstage: John Harwood Reflects on the Unpredictable Electoral Outlook

Posted by Lynn Heider on October 30, 2024

The 2024 election is just a week away, and in the presidential election, the polls couldn’t reflect any more of a horse race, with the candidates neck-and-neck, passing the lead back and forth in the homestretch, galloping to cross the finish line first.

So, who will be the next President, and which party will control the 119^th Congress?

Enter John Harwood.

Tuesday’s MAXX keynote speaker is more than a spectator – he’s had three decades of experience calling these races, covering the White House, national politics, and the economy for leading news organizations such as The Wall Street Journal, CNN, and MSNBC.

“So where do we sit? We sit on the campaign that is a one- or two-point race everywhere,” Harwood said. “Clearly, this is a race that could go either way.”

Americans have seen razor-thin presidential contests in the past, but not quite like this one. Harwood points to a number of reasons. Polling methodology has changed with fewer voice-to-voice conversations. More polls are being taken online, and via text messaging – and there isn’t enough of a track record proving polls to be accurate. In addition, demographics of American voters have and continue to evolve. There are key issues which Harwood notes have galvanized women and younger voters.

But one thing that hasn’t changed – the economy and its influence on election outcomes. Inflation is key. While older voters remember paying double digit mortgage interest rates, we got used to much lower rates before inflation.

“People are not used to high interest rates in the current context,” Harwood said. “How you feel about the economy has been disrupted by inflation.”

Other Harwood observations:

• If Donald Trump is elected, it’s “very likely” we’ll see Republican majorities in the House and Senate.
• If Harris is elected, Harwood believes, one opportunity she would have for bipartisan policy advancement in Congress could be when the Trump-era tax cuts expire. There would be an opportunity for negotiation.
• Is there one state to watch? Several swing states are in play but Pennsylvania will remain key.
• Will we know the results on election night? That’s unlikely.
• Do celebrity endorsements, such as Taylor Swift backing Harris-Walz, influence the outcome of elections? Historically, they don’t make much of as difference, but Swift is at a higher level than most celebrities, and in a race this close, “a thousand small things could make a difference.”

Posted in MAXX, MAXX Keynote Speakers, Top Headlines.