The Halloween Effect: How Interest Rate Cuts Impact Credit Union Assets and Liabilities

October 29, 2024

By Aparna Moorthy, Catalyst Senior Asset Liability Management Analyst

Halloween brings incantations of ghastly displays and haunting celebrations; similarly, financial markets seem to be concocting a brew of transformation. The recent slashes to interest rates have brought significant changes for credit unions, especially with regard to their assets and liabilities. Let’s take a closer look at how these changes could potentially haunt or help your institution.

The spooky side: declining investment yields
One of the most immediate impacts of the latest rate cuts on credit unions is a decline in investment yield. Credit unions often maintain a large portion of their assets in fixed-income securities, including government bonds and corporate debt. When interest rates decline, the income earned on these assets decreases – this could make it difficult for credit unions to maintain their operating margins. Like some sort of ominous specter, reduced income might hang over their financial statements, forcing tighter budgets and potential service cutbacks.

A borrower’s treat: increased loan demand
The sweet side of decreased interest rates means cheaper borrowing for members. As the price of loans goes down, a credit union may expect an upward trend in demand for personal loans, auto loans, and mortgages. The outcome could result in increased lending activity, helping to grow their overall loan portfolio and partially offset losses from lower investment yields.

The trick of shifting liabilities
While credit unions can gain at the asset level, where increased demand for loans will work in their favor, challenges still exist on the liabilities front. Generally, lower rates lead to a drop in deposit account rates. Although this might reduce the interest expense for credit unions, it also reduces the attractiveness of their accounts for current and prospective members who may shift their funds into institutions bearing higher yields. These shifts in savings hold the potential to create problems in liquidity.

A balancing act
ALM becomes critical in the financial haunted house. Credit unions must find a balance in their portfolios to manage risks effectively with the continuance of their services for members. With changing interest rate dynamics, flexibility by credit unions might be expensive, shifting the loan and investment mix to accommodate their needs for liquidity and competitiveness.

These are challenges that can be overcome by considering alternative investments, hedges, or product offerings to help a credit union diversify its portfolio and realize better returns. They can also provide education to the members on the benefits of various types of loan products and savings accounts to make them more competitive.

Leaving the dust to settle from these interest rate cuts, the long-term implications for credit unions are largely left to how well each credit union can adapt. By embracing these opportunities in increased loan demand while managing their assets and liabilities strategically, credit unions can position themselves to grow sustainably.

Learning to love the mysterious unknown
The recent cuts in interest rates pose both challenges and opportunities for credit unions. To successfully navigate this economic maze requires quick action and a guiding sense of purpose. Halloween, a time when tricks sometimes replace expected treats, is a fitting analogy for credit unions preparing for the shifting landscape. It requires a delicate balance that caters not only to the needs of members, but also financial stability that will enable credit unions to come out from this season – not just as survivors – but as strong institutions, ready to face whatever comes next.

Contact your GoWest Solutions team to learn more about how Catalyst can help your credit union with innovative payments, asset management, or liquidity solutions.

Posted in GoWest Solutions, Top Headlines.