Post-primary election polling sets tone for November general election

Posted by Joe Adamack on September 13, 2024

With the August primary election complete after being officially certified on August 23rd all eyes turn toward the November general election that will give Washington voters a chance to weigh in on everything from the US President to state lawmakers, and ballot initiatives to local judges. One thing we know for certain is it will be a long ballot and you will likely encounter many political ads and mailers in the coming months.

Fresh polling released in full today confirms some of what we already know and sheds more light on shifting trends in voter sentiment from polls taken earlier this year. Complete polling data and results can be found here.

Top of the ballot projections show VP Kamala Harris and US Senator Maria Cantwell with significant leads in their respective races for President and US Senate while AG Bob Ferguson has an 11-point lead over former Congressman Dave Reichert for governor.

While those results were not much of a surprise based on recent polling and analysis, voter sentiment on four upcoming ballot initiatives show many remain undecided and some trends toward weakening support to repeal some recent major legislative initiatives. Notably the initiative repealing the state carbon tax (cap and trade) program is running behind, while a narrow margin indicates support for making the long-term care program and associated payroll tax optional, albeit with 27% still undecided.

Polls are based on a small sample size and come with associated caveats so while they do capture current sentiment among a demographically valid sampling of voters, the only result that truly matters are the November election results. That said, polling shared publicly, along with those conducted by independent campaigns or political groups influence how campaigns will message and where groups focus their resources on contacting voters in the coming months.

Posted in Advocacy on the Move, Washington Advocacy.